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Josh Ammons: How do revolutions impact development?

This study examines the impact of violent and nonviolent revolutions on key indicators of human development, including GDP per capita, education levels, and life expectancy. Using data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project and the Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes (NAVCO) dataset, we employ a Callaway Santa’Anna approach with country-and time specific trends to analyze the effects of revolutions across countries from 1900 to 2019. Our most robust models reveal that violent revolutions have no significant effect on GDP per capita but negatively impact education (-0.338 years) and life expectancy (-1.682 years). Nonviolent revolutions demonstrate a small negative effect on GDP per capita (-$725) but no statistically significant impact on education or life expectancy. These findings challenge the notion that revolutionary institutional change consistently improves economic and social outcomes, particularly in the case of violent upheavals. The study contributes to our understanding of the complex relationship between political instability and human development, suggesting that the costs of revolutions, especially violent ones, may outweigh their potential benefits in terms of socioeconomic progress.

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September 17

Meg Tuszynski and Richard Wagner: Reason, Ideology, and Democracy

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November 19

Dan Sutter: Institutional Change and Entangled Political Economy